Google warns that quantum computers may be capable of attacking certain encryption systems by 2029, earlier than previous predictions by 6 to 15 years. If this estimate is accurate, governments, businesses, and organizations have limited time to prepare new encryption systems to protect their data.
“Q-Day is the moment when the world has a quantum computer capable of breaking the encryption systems currently in use. It will be a turning point,” said Michele Mosca, CEO of the cybersecurity company evolutionQ, in an interview with CNN. Mosca is a co-author of the report “The Quantum Threat,” published annually by the Global Risk Institute in Canada since 2019.
Once a quantum computer is stable enough to operate and break traditional cryptography, all sensitive data such as financial transactions, medical records, emails, or accounts protected by currently popular algorithms could be compromised. Experts note that in recent years, hacker groups have been “stockpiling” encrypted files that they cannot yet decrypt, intending to unlock them when they have the capability.
IBM’s Quantum System One. Photo: IBM
Previously, a report published early this year, based on the opinions of 26 experts in the field, suggested that a quantum computer capable of breaking encryption could emerge in the next 10 to 15 years.
However, many companies are being more cautious. Google stated that it aims to implement post-quantum cryptography—an encryption form that can withstand quantum computers—by 2029. In a blog post, Google noted that this timeline reflects advancements in quantum computing and the urgency of transitioning to new cryptographic systems. Similarly, the cloud service company Cloudflare also announced plans to deploy new encryption forms by 2029.
Unlike conventional computers that process information sequentially using bits of 0 or 1, quantum computers use quantum bits, or qubits, which can represent 0, 1, or both simultaneously. This property, known as superposition, allows quantum machines to store and process more complex information.
The current bottleneck is how to create more stable qubits. Currently, qubits only operate in extremely cold environments and under very low pressure, limiting interactions with the environment to help them remain stable. Even the most advanced qubits today, such as superconducting qubits being developed by Google and IBM, have a lifespan measured in milliseconds.
Inside Google’s quantum laboratory in California, USA. Photo: Reuters
Dustin Moody, a mathematician involved in the post-quantum cryptography project at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), stated that large multinational corporations are aware of this threat and are “acting quite quickly.”
According to this expert, the White House recommends 2035 as a target for organizations to complete the adoption of post-quantum cryptography. NIST is expected to finalize a set of encryption algorithms by 2024, designed to withstand cyberattacks from quantum computers.
“In the past, we have had cryptographic transitions that typically took 10 to 20 years. This transition will be more complex and costly than previous ones. Therefore, if a quantum computer emerges in the next five years, the transition process will still not be complete,” he said.
Furthermore, the transition will only protect future data. Meanwhile, stockpiling-type attacks may already be underway. Electronic health records, which contain long-term medical histories and genetic information, could be a prime target for this type of attack.
The Quantum Threat report also stated that assessing quantum risks to cybersecurity is challenging due to covert research efforts worldwide. “Q-Day could indeed happen before the world realizes it, when some parties may seek to use this knowledge for strategic advantage,” according to the report.
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